Thursday, November 6, 2008

Why can't they start out on the right foot?

The Telluride Ski and Golf Company is reporting 24" from the recent storm. I'm not saying this is impossible, but I do find it VERY hard to believe. Up in Ophir, we received about 10-12" in town ... maybe 14-16" up high (haven't heard any reports though); however, it was very windy so there are variable deposits which probably do total over 2 feet, but there are also spots with next to no snow at all. Maybe Telski measured a drift, or maybe there was a local cell which kept giving ... but I doubt it (too much wind).

Wolf Creek is reporting 14"
Aspen is reporting 16"
Red Mountain Pass 11"
Crested Butte's ski area website isn't publishing snow reports yet.

There was about SIX TO EIGHT INCHES (tops) of new on the ground in the Town of Telluride this morning! Typically, this would translate into about 12-16 inches up high on the ski mountain. I'd guess around 12-14 is probably realistic given the profile of this storm.

So, we're missing about a foot between reality and Telski's report. Again, I could be mistaken, or it could simply be a matter of where the snow is being measured (i.e. large drift).

I can't really prove this, but based upon the regional reports and from what I saw on my deck and around Ophir, I'm fairly convinced the Telluride Ski Company is doing quite a bit more than overstating things.

I've seen REALLY strange things happen in terms of snowfall differentials withing a 30 mile radius. I remember one storm where Rico received something like 3-4 feet, while Telluride (about 30 miles away) got only about 12". So, it can happen ... but this storm was just WAY TOO WINDY - most spots in the area will get about same amount of snow. The big differentials normally happen during a really wet storm ... where cells linger and just stall out over a spot and keep dumping. It was far from the case on Wednesday. Again, I think they're measuring a large snow drift.

Maybe there's a sense of pressure at Telski to make this season work out given the economic down turn (bookings for lodging were down 20%), capital expenditures (new lift), and high lift ticket prices ($92 per day). If I lived in New York and made travel plans based on this preliminary information and later found out it was simply not true, I'd be furious.

Ultimately, I hope independent website which report (or at least verify) snow via first hand assessment will keep the "official" snow reports in check.

Again, it could still be true.